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Election 2021: Bleak Outlook for Canadian Gun Owners

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TheGunBlog.ca — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau initiated a national election yesterday in a bet his Liberal Party will win enough votes to control parliament.

The outlook for the country’s 4 million gun owners is bleak. A lot can change during an election campaign.

Even though there’s a lot more at stake in this election than the future of personal gun ownership, that’s what we’ll focus on here.

Election 2021 Dates

  • Election Announced: 15 August 2021
  • Last Day to Vote: 20 September 2021
  • Note: If you plan to vote, consider avoiding the last day.
    • Some people call the last voting day “Election Day.” This is misleading.
    • You can easily vote early.
    • Check Elections Canada.

Liberal Victory Likely

  • Opinion polls and projections aggregated by 338Canada.com suggest the Liberals will win Election 2021, and possibly win a majority of the 338 seats in the House of Commons.
  • The Conservative Party, the only party in the House that isn’t hostile to gun owners, will come second, according to the polls.
  • Hope: Projections can turn out wrong, or wildly wrong.

Liberals Suppress Gun Owners

  • The Liberal Party of Canada is the most powerful and hostile force against gun owners in the House of Commons.
  • After every election they’ve won in the past 30 years, they’ve worked to criminalize the millions of honest individuals and families who use firearms: hunters, farmers, ranchers, hobbyists, competitors, collectors, or simply people who have guns and ammo for personal protection and home defence in an emergency.
  • Polls consistently show that Liberal voters have the deepest dislike of gun owners. The party fuels and exploits that view to win votes.
  • Many gun users still vote Liberal.

Liberal Campaign Plans in Election 2021: Unknown

  • The Liberals haven’t released their plans for Election 2021.
  • The Liberal-led government began airing anti-gun ads in July for a campaign to last into September.
  • The Liberals have several restrictions already in the works to further crack down on gun owners.
    • A new aspect of Liberal Bill C-71 kicks in next month, threatening jail for anyone who buys, sells or gives away any firearm without explicit RCMP approval for the transfer.
    • Some 200,000 licensed firearm owners risk jail after April 2022 unless we surrender our rifles and shotguns that the Liberals blacklisted in their mass criminalization of May 2020.
    • The Liberals proposed Bill C-21 in February as a their planned law to empower cities and towns to criminalize handgun owners.

Conservative Campaign Plans in Election 2021

  • The Conservative Party published its Election 2021 campaign plan today, including several points on personal gun ownership and gun use in the unlikely case they form the next government.
  • The firearm proposals are on pages 89-91 of the 164-page PDF. (In the PDF below, go to page 45 of 89, then drag the PDF to the left to see the right-hand page. There are two pages per sheet.)
  • They promised to repeal Bill C-71, cancel the May 2020 mass criminalization of licensed gun owners, and to further tinker with gun laws.
    • They view restrictions on gun users as part of anti-crime policy, rather than as policy to support and protect the millions of individuals and families who use firearms for good.
  • Key Quote

Our focus will be on keeping firearms out of the hands of criminals. This contrasts with the Liberals, who have refused to take action against gangs while harassing hunters and sport shooters. Canada’s Conservatives will improve the regulation of legal firearms to ensure that it is evidence-based and focuses on protecting public safety.

We will start by repealing C-71 and the May 2020 Order in Council and conducting a review of the Firearms Act with participation by law enforcement, firearms owners, manufacturers, and members of the public.

Conservative Party, Election 2021 Policy Proposals, 16 August 2021

Threats to Conservative Victory

  • Even though a Conservative victory is the best hope for gun owners, many past Conservative voters are shunning the party.
  • Polls suggest the party will lose seats in the House of Commons in Election 2021.
  • Criticisms and frustrations cover the party leader and the party’s policy proposals that have alienated political conservatives and libertarians. Some past supporters have shifted to small parties that don’t have a presence in the House of Commons, including the People’s Party of Canada. Voting for fringe parties mostly helps elect Liberals.

Other Party Campaign Plans in Election 2021

Political Bottom Line

  • As unlikely as it is as today, the best outcome for gun owners in Election 2021 is a Conservative victory.

Beyond Politics

  • Given the political landscape and outlook, Canadians can’t count on the political system to restore the rights of gun users.
  • Any solution is beyond party politics.

Related

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Correction

  • Aug. 24: Corrects sentence on Bill C-21.