Election 2019: Three Realities and Four Possible Outcomes

TheGunBlog.ca — The Canadian election that kicked off this week is the most-critical vote in a generation for hunters, sport shooters and the gun industry. It will determine the future of civilian firearm ownership in our country.

Here are three realities for gun owners and four possible election outcomes.

They are adapted from our new book with Christopher di Armani, Canadian Gun Owners Guide to Election 2019 (Amazon Bestseller).

Three Realities

1. The Liberal Party wants the biggest instant gun bans or expulsions in Canadian history.

  • Many gun owners missed what Minister Bill Blair said in June 2019.
  • Gun bans mean owners will have to leave the country with their firearms or sell them abroad, surrender them to police, or face jail.

2. Canada’s next prime minister will be Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party, or Andrew Scheer of the Conservative Party.

  • If it isn’t Scheer, the hunting and shooting community is toast.
  • The Conservatives are the only party to support firearm users AND to have a chance of defeating the Liberals.

3. If you vote Conservative in a riding they can’t win, you will indirectly elect a Liberal government and lose your guns.

  • If you vote Libertarian, People’s Party of Canada, or for other small parties in Election 2019, you may as well surrender your guns today.



Four Possible Election Outcomes

Election 2019 has one of four probable outcomes.

Only one of them keeps us safe from Liberal plans to eliminate our community, our culture and our guns.

  1. Liberals win a majority
  2. Liberals win a minority
  3. Conservatives win a minority
  4. Conservatives win a majority

Here’s the analysis of what happens in each scenario, from worst to best.


1. Liberals Win a Majority: Worst Outcome

  • If the Liberals form a majority government, they will implement their plans for the biggest round of gun bans and confiscations in Canadian history.

2. Liberals Win a Minority: Bad Outcome

  • If the Liberals don’t win enough seats to form a majority government, they will need the support of another party to remain in power. In this scenario, all options against firearm users are on the table.
  • Since four of the five main parties want gun bans of one form or another, a coalition government would be a minor inconvenience to forcing gun owners to leave our homes, surrender our firearms, or face jail.
  • Whether they partner with NDP, Greens or Bloc Québécois, the Liberals could ban guns as easily as if they had a majority.
  • A minority Liberal government would probably also remain in power until the next scheduled federal election in 2023.

3. Conservatives Win a Minority: Fragile Outcome

  • A Conservative minority government opens up another terrifying yet very real possibility.
  • An opposition party, say the Liberals, could introduce legislation to ban and confiscate guns. They could gang up against the Conservatives using the NDP, Greens and Bloc Québécois to push this legislation through.
  • Imagine this nightmare scenario: massive gun bans and confiscations imposed under a Conservative prime minister. Is this realistic? In our current political climate, yes.
  • If the Conservative Party forms a minority government, our guns may be safe as long as that government stands. The time frame could be as short as a few months or as long as four years, but whatever length of time it is, we’re fighting this battle again in the very near future.

4. Conservatives Win a Majority: Best Outcome

  • The only way we are safe from government measures against us (until the next election) is if we elect a Conservative majority in 2019.
  • That’s not a message many gun owners want to hear, especially if they feel closer to the NDP, Green Party, Bloc Québécois, People’s Party of Canada or any other party.


Like it or not, this is our political reality in Election 2019.

You have hundreds or thousands of dollars invested in your guns and gear. You can’t afford to get this election wrong.

About the Book

  • The book shows every voter in every riding how to vote to save our guns, our culture and our community.
  • The recommendations are based on analyzing the results of every election for every party in every electoral district for the past five elections (since 2004), and looking at the latest polls and projections.
  • Regardless of whether people love or hate guns, everyone agrees that Election 2019 will determine the future of civilian firearm owners in Canada.
  • View the book on Amazon.ca